Increased Rainfall and Intense Monsoon Season Expected in Singapore Due to La Nina Until April
SINGAPORE: Brace yourselves, Singaporeans, as rainy and cold weather are set to dominate the Lion City in the coming months. A monsoon surge last Friday (Jan 10) marked the beginning of what experts predict will be a rainy and chilly season, with sweater weather becoming the new norm.
La Nina, a weather phenomenon characterized by wetter and cooler conditions, is expected to make its presence felt in Singapore as early as this month and last until April. This pattern, driven by tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures, typically persists for months to about a year, bringing about intense rains and more wet days to the region.
**La Nina Weather Pattern: What to Expect**
As the world remains on “La Nina watch,” Singapore, like many other countries, is experiencing La Nina-like conditions due to strengthened trade winds over the Pacific Ocean. This pushes warm water westward towards Southeast Asia, resulting in increased evaporation and cloud formation, leading to heavier rainfall over the region.
The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a recurring climate pattern characterized by cycles of warming and cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean, has brought Singapore from El Nino in 2023 to 2024 to the current La Nina phase. This phenomenon, alternating with La Nina every few years, is now showing signs of La Nina conditions, though not in its strongest form.
**Expert Insights and Predictions**
Mr. Tan Wee Leng, a senior research scientist at the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre, noted the presence of La Nina-like conditions in Singapore. While these conditions are expected to persist in the coming months, a return to neutral weather is projected for April. The World Meteorological Organization also anticipates any upcoming La Nina event to be weak and short-lived.
**Outlook Beyond April**
Looking into the future, weather experts remain uncertain about the weather patterns post-April, with predictions for ENSO conditions after June still unclear. Mr. Tan highlighted the unpredictability of ENSO forecasts beyond the northern hemisphere’s spring, with a clearer picture expected around May.
**Development of Impact Examination Tool**
To better understand and prepare for the impact of such weather patterns, a research team at the National University of Singapore (NUS) is working on a tool that can assess the vulnerability of the Southeast Asia region to events like floods, typhoons, and heatwaves. By utilizing natural language processing and artificial intelligence, the team aims to provide near-real-time insights into possible damages and impacts caused by extreme weather events.
Assistant Professor Gianmarco Mengaldo, leading the NUS research team, emphasized the importance of this tool in identifying common themes such as infrastructure damage in different regions. The team plans to launch the tool in the coming months, with a goal of providing it to relevant agencies like the National Environment Agency and the Centre for Climate Research Singapore.
As Singapore prepares for an extended period of increased rainfall and intense monsoon conditions, the development of such tools becomes crucial in mitigating the potential risks and damages associated with La Nina. Stay tuned for more updates as experts continue to monitor and analyze the evolving weather patterns in the region.